4th annual benchmark finds online channels fuel new customer acquisition—yet the real economic shift is how retailers convert digital demand into high-value in-store experience using AI-driven execution

PALO ALTO, Calif. – Dec. 10, 2025 — Online grocery is staging a comeback, but the true opportunity for retailers lies in seamlessly connecting digital channels with the physical store. According to SymphonyAI, a global leader in Vertical AI platforms, and its fourth annual Grocery E-commerce Benchmark, the industry’s largest longitudinal study of digital grocery behavior, growth has returned after three years of contraction. But while online grocery attracts new and returning shoppers, the winning economics now come from converting that digital engagement into in-store sales, loyalty, and higher-value customer experiences.The study, which analyzed 1.3 billion transactions and 68 million households across the US and Europe, reveals a structural shift: digital grocery is no longer defined by weekly stock-up missions, but by small, mission-driven baskets. These shifts in channel usage mean retailers must reimagine the in-store experience—using digital insights, AI-driven segmentation, and personalized engagement to deliver what today's shopper wants, where it matters most: in physical stores.

A New Economic Model: AI Bridges Online and In-Store

This year’s findings differ sharply from historical trends, signaling a new, AI-enabled retail playbook:

• Growth is acquisition-led, with a 12% increase in new and reactivated customers year-over-year. Successful retailers use AI-powered propensity modeling to identify these shoppers online—and convert them into loyal in-store customers.
• Small baskets dominate, driven by single-occasion purchases like forgotten items and replenishment. AI-powered recommendations and targeted promotions can nudge online shoppers towards bundled offers and full-basket missions in store.
• Even highly loyal online shoppers are visiting less often, increasing the urgency for physical stores to become more responsive, personalized, and efficient using digital signals and AI-native operations.
• Subscriptions are emerging as a key lever for frequency. Retailers that use AI-driven insights from digital activity can trigger in-store subscription pickups, loyalty benefits, and personalized in-store experiences that rebuild engagement.

These shifts reflect broader pressures—from consumer time scarcity to inflation-driven price sensitivity—and are prompting grocers to rethink how they use digital data and AI to optimize their physical store environments, merchandising, and operations.

Regional Approaches Diversify—But the Store Remains Key

The benchmark also highlights differences between regions:

• US retailers are prioritizing customer acquisition and omnichannel expansion. The leaders are those who use digital behavior signals to personalize outreach and drive store traffic and spend.
• European retailers, competing in a more mature digital market, are leaning into loyalty and frequency recovery. Many now leverage AI to synchronize digital offers and in-store experiences, reinforcing brand loyalty at the physical shelf.

In both cases, SymphonyAI’s AI retail platform enable retailers to translate digital opportunity into in-store conversion, higher-value missions, and operational excellence.

Executive Perspective

“This is not a return to pre-pandemic behavior—it’s the emergence of a new economic model, powered by AI,” said Manish Choudhary, President, Retail at SymphonyAI. “Online grocery may be growing, but it’s the retailers who rapidly connect digital insights to the physical store—personalizing every in-aisle experience, every bundle, every promotion—who will win. SymphonyAI’s Vertical AI platform enables retailers to transform insights into timely, targeted in-store actions—reshaping the next decade of grocery.”

AI-Driven Solutions for Modern Retail

Trends like these highlight the importance of AI-native, intelligent retail execution in stores. The same behavioral insights inform SymphonyAI’s CINDE Connected Retail platform, which powers merchandising, store operations, demand forecasting, and retail media for physical environments. With CINDE, grocery retailers and CPGs can:

• Precisely identify and target high-value digital shoppers, converting them into loyal in-store customers
• Personalize in-store experiences, recommendations, and promotions based on digital mission signals and predictive models
• Optimize assortment, store layouts, and pricing dynamically with AI-driven, hyper-localized insights
• Detect and mitigate churn risk by activating loyalty and subscription programs in store
• Synchronize digital campaigns and in-store activations for maximum omnichannel impact
• Accelerate time-to-insight and move from intelligence to real-world execution—breaking down silos between digital data and in-store engagement

Study Methodology

Now in its fourth year, SymphonyAI’s Grocery E-commerce Benchmark is recognized as the industry’s most comprehensive longitudinal analysis of online grocery behavior. The 2025 study includes:

• 1.3 billion transactions
• 11 billion units, including 888 million online transaction units
• 68 million households across the US and Europe
• Data spanning Q1 2019 through Q2 2025
• Retailers weighted equally to ensure representative market insights

For a deep dive into the AI-powered trends and strategies driving the future of e-commerce grocery, download the complete 2025 eBook, “Ecommerce 2025: The New Era of Grocery Innovation,” or watch the expert webinar.For a look back at last year’s market trends and findings, see our 2024 e-commerce press release.

About SymphonyAI

SymphonyAI delivers Vertical AI platforms that help enterprises solve their most complex, high-value challenges — from stopping financial crime to improving store -performance and boosting manufacturing efficiency. Trusted by more than 2,000 enterprise customers worldwide, including 200 of the top financial institutions, the top 25 CPG companies, and many of the world’s largest grocers and industrial manufacturers, SymphonyAI provides domain-trained applications and pre-built agents that are ready to work on day one. Learn more at https://www.symphonyai.com/.

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