Grocery Sentiment Index – Q3 2025

Summary:

In this Q3 2025 briefing of the Grocery Sentiment Index (GSI), SymphonyAI provides a data-rich pulse on global shopper behavior, powered by billions of real transactions and retail-contextual AI. Laetitia Berthier and Josh McCann break down regional sentiment trends across the US, Europe, and Asia, highlighting category-specific performance, evolving loyalty dynamics, and strategic imperatives for merchandising leaders heading into Q4.

Discussion Breakdown:

Global Shopper Sentiment Overview:

– Sentiment continues to hover in the neutral zone globally (GSI at 47).   – Data from over 64 million households and six billion units sold underpins the insights.   – Despite geopolitical and inflationary headwinds, grocery sentiment shows relative resilience.

Europe & Asia Market Trends:

• Shopper traffic and visit frequency are up, but loyalty is declining—a key concern.
• Everyday essentials like bakery, meat, and coffee drive category resilience.
• Discretionary categories such as alcohol and ice cream underperform even after adjusting for seasonality.
• Q4 projections suggest a modest decline in sentiment; proactive retention tactics will be critical.

US Market Trends:

• Sentiment dipped slightly due to rising average prices and reduced volume per shop.
• Signs of fresh category strength (meat, ready-to-eat) suggest consumers are replacing meals away from home.
• Tariffs appear to be lifting prices in long-cycle categories (e.g., canned goods), dampening perceived value.
• Q4 expected to rebound slightly, offering a window to drive growth through loyalty and optimized category mix.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Use AI to identify at-risk loyal shoppers early and re-engage through personalized offers.
• Align assortments to reflect seasonal and economic realities—emphasize value and convenience.
• Leverage digital tools to drive one-more-item behavior and create high-affinity basket suggestions.
• Integrate fresh and ready-to-eat offerings into promotions to meet evolving occasion-driven needs.

Resources Mentioned:

Grocery Sentiment Index (GSI): Real-time, AI-powered measurement of global shopper sentiment.

Annual E-Commerce Study (SymphonyAI): Includes insights into digital penetration and cross-regional differences.