When I look across grocery retail right now, one thing is clear: growth is back, but it looks nothing like it used to.
At SymphonyAI, we analyzed shopper behavior across 68 million households and 1.3 billion transactions, and the findings surprised even us. Alongside my colleague Josh McCann, who leads our client delivery and analytics team, we explored how grocery e-commerce has evolved since the pandemic-era boom.
What we found was a new kind of momentum. One driven by omnichannel shoppers, smaller baskets, and AI-powered decisions that connect people, processes, and products in real time.
Here are four insights that stood out, and how retailers can act on them to build momentum for 2026 and beyond.
1. Omnichannel Shoppers Are the Growth Engine
E-commerce is back in growth mode, with customer counts up 12.1% in H1 2025. But the real driver of that growth isn’t online-only shoppers—it’s those who move seamlessly between digital and physical channels.
According to the study, 8 in 10 e-commerce shoppers are omnichannel. And they’re not just browsing more, they’re 3x more loyal, shop three times more often, and spend 16% more than in-store shoppers.
The opportunity is to identify potential omnichannel customers, and encourage them to broaden their journey from in-store to online. With AI-powered propensity models, retailers can pinpoint the 6% of in-store shoppers most likely to shop online and engage them through personalized assortments, cross-channel offers, and seamless fulfillment.
For merchandising leaders, that means optimizing the right categories like frozen, convenient foods and household essentials that spark omnichannel trial and loyalty.
2. Small Baskets, Big Opportunity
One of the more surprising insights from our analysis was around basket size. While the average basket size dipped 2.5%, small baskets (20 items or fewer) now make up nearly half of all U.S. e-commerce transactions, growing 14% year over year in the region.
At first glance, that sounds like bad news for grocers—smaller baskets must mean smaller profits, right? Nope. When we looked closer, it became clear these are gateway baskets, often from new or reactivated customers testing online convenience.
Instead of treating these shoppers as low-value, retailers can use AI in retail merchandising to turn these micro-trips into mission-based purchases. Basket affinity models can identify natural add-ons—like pairing baby care with cleaning products or frozen foods with fresh—to grow order value and category penetration.
This trend reminds me of the discussions we had during our recent Smarter Stores, Satisfied Shoppers QuikTrip’s Merchandising Transformation webinar, where we explored how smaller missions are redefining grocery trips altogether.
The takeaway? Treat small baskets as high-potential relationships waiting to be scaled.
3. Subscription Programs Can Win Back Frequency
Even as e-commerce grows, frequency is slipping. Shoppers are spending more overall but ordering less often.
Our study found that consistent online shoppers make up just 17% of customers but drive 57% of sales. When their frequency drops, revenue follows.
The fix isn’t just more promotions, it’s about predictability. AI can spot replenishment patterns and trigger personalized subscription or refill programs across routine categories like dairy, paper goods, or personal care.
When done well, these programs create habit loops that sustain retention and reduce churn risk. Retailers implementing AI-powered subscription models are already seeing up to 1.3% incremental e-commerce growth.
4. Turning Data Into Decisions
AI in retail isn’t theoretical anymore—it’s tactical. At SymphonyAI, we’re seeing teams move from dashboards to daily decisions, where retail forecasting AI connects strategy to execution.
With solutions like continuous intelligence for retail planning, grocery leaders can:
- Predict which store shoppers will go omnichannel and intervene early.
- Spot category trends hiding inside small baskets.
- Retain high-value customers by identifying early drops in order frequency.
When you bring these insights together, you unlock the 7.6% growth opportunity we identified across the grocery e-commerce landscape.
For category managers looking to make the next leap, I also recommend How AI Transforms Assortment Planning—it’s a great complement to this data.
The Bottom Line
This year’s findings confirm what many of us have sensed: grocery e-commerce is maturing. Growth is no longer about chasing scale. It’s about building smarter, more connected operations that reflect how people actually shop.
With AI, we now have the tools to turn data into action, allowing us to understand not just what shoppers are doing, but why—and then make informed decisions.
That’s what this research, and the work Josh and I have done with our retail partners, is really about: helping teams connect every decision to the shopper behind it.
Download the full SymphonyAI Grocery E-Commerce Report
Get regional insights, category details, and practical strategies to put these findings into motion.
